Sun Pharma Q4 profit, revenue expected to report healthy growth on low base

Drug major Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is expected to report around 50-60 percent year-on-year growth in March quarter profit due to low base in the year-ago period.

Revenue from operations during the quarter is seen rising in the range of 10-16 percent compared to corresponding period last year, aided by India and Rest of World.

“We expect the overall revenue for Sun Pharma to grow by 12 percent YoY on account of growth across geographies partly offset by the weak US business,” said Narnolia.

“The US business is expected to de-grow by 20 percent YoY in Q4FY20 due to onetime supply opportunity (of six months) in Q4FY19 though sequentially, we expect it to be flat on account of slower ramp up of specialty products,” the brokerage added.

Remember in the March quarter 2019, profit fell 52 percent YoY, EBITDA was down 40 percent and revenue increased 2.7 percent. India business was down 44 percent.

“Low base in domestic formulation, healthy growth in Rest of World/API will drive overall revenue growth. High base in the past year and gradual pickup in sales from new launches will result in 20 percent YoY decline in US sales,” said Motilal Oswal which expects profit to rise 48 percent and revenue 16 percent.

On the operating front, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) is expected to rise around 60 percent and margin may expand by more than 650 basis points YoY.

“We expect EBITDA margin to grow from 14.2 percent in Q4FY19 to 20 percent in Q4FY20 due to lower promotional expenses for the specialty products,” said Narnolia which sees EBITDA growth at 57 percent YoY.

Kotak Institutional Equities and Emkay Global expect 62-64 percent YoY growth in EBITDA and margin expansion of 671-650 bps YoY.

Key things to watch out for would be outlook on potential ANDA opportunities in US Generics, commentary on the ramp up of specialty products and update on the OAI status of Halol facility. – Moneycontrol