COVID-19 third wave will peak in October, warns MHA panel

India saw a single-day rise of 25,072 new COVID-19 cases, the lowest in 160 days, while active cases declined to 3,33,924, comprising 1.03 percent of the total infections, the lowest since March 2020, according to the Union health ministry data updated on Monday. The tally of COVID-19 cases has increased to 3,24,49,306. while the death toll has climbed to 4,34,756 with 389 daily fatalities, according to the data updated at 8 am. The active cases have declined to 3,33,924, the lowest in 155 days, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has increased to 97.63 percent, the highest since March 2020, the health ministry said. A reduction of 19,474 cases has been recorded in the total number of active COVID-19 cases in a span of 24 hours. Also, 12,95,160 tests were conducted on Sunday, taking the cumulative tests conducted so far for detection of COVID-19 in the country to 50,75,51,399. The daily positivity rate was recorded at 1.94 percent. It has been less than 3 percent for the last 28 days. Weekly positivity rate was recorded at 1.91 percent. It has been below 3 percent for the last 59 days, according to the health ministry. The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 3,16,80,626, while the case fatality rate stands at 1.34 percent, the data stated. Cumulatively, 58.25 crore COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered under the nationwide vaccination drive till Monday morning. India’s COVID-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 2020, 30 lakh on August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and 50 lakh on September 16. It went past 60 lakh on September 28, 70 lakh on October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29, 90 lakh on November 20 and surpassed the one-crore mark on December 19. India crossed the grim milestone of two crore on May 4 and three crore on June 23.

Odisha on Monday registered 761 new COVID-19 cases, including 101 children, taking the state’s tally to 10,01,698, while 68 fresh fatalities pushed the toll to 7,426, a health department official said. This apart, 53 COVID-19 patients in the state have died due to comorbidities in the past. Of the 761 new cases, 443 cases were reported from quarantine centres and the rest detected during contact tracing.

Khurda district, of which state capital Bhubaneswar is a part, recorded the maximum number of new cases at 289, followed by Cuttack at 117. Three districts Kalahandi, Koraput and Nuapada did not report any new case. Cuttack district reported 17 fresh fatalities followed by Jagatsinghpur at 15, Dhenkanal at nine, Khurda at eight and Jajpur at six.

A 15-year-old girl was among the 68 patients who succumbed to the infection, raising the total number of children and adolescents who lost their lives to COVID-19 during the second wave to 29. Odisha currently has 8,917 active cases, while 9,85,302 patients, including 1,078, on Sunday have recovered from the highly infectious disease. The positivity rate in the state stands at 5.70 per cent.

Over 1.75 crore sample tests have been conducted thus far, including 60,791 on Sunday. As many as 2,04,48,414 people have been inoculated in the state with COVID-19 vaccine, 48,30,273 of them having taken both the doses. Meanwhile, the chief of the Directorate of Medical Education and Training (DMET), CBK Mohanty, said the third wave is likely to strike in October, going by the prediction of the experts. ‘Children might be more vulnerable to the third wave as adults, many of them, have been inoculated,’ Mohanty said. Director of Health Service, Bijay Mohapatra, said the state government has made elaborate arrangements for treatment of children, in case they are infected in large numbers.

More than 57.05 crore COVID-19 vaccine doses have been provided to state and UTs so far, the Union Health ministry said on Monday. Another 13,34,620 doses are in the pipeline, the ministry said. Over 3.44 crore balance and unutilised COVID-19 vaccine doses are still available with the states and UTs to be administered, it said. The ministry said the Union Government is committed to accelerating the pace and expanding the scope of COVID-19 vaccination throughout the country.

Mizoram reported 292 new COVID-19 cases and six fatalities in the last 24 hours, taking the state”s tally to 52,472 and death toll to 200, a health department official said on Monday. The single-day positivity rate was 13.95 per cent as the fresh cases were detected from 2,093 samples, he said. The cases were reported from Aizawl (169), Siaha (59), Mamit (32), Kolasib (15), Lawngtlai (7), Lunglei (5), Serchhip (3) and Champhai (2).

More than 63 children are among the newly infected people, he said, adding that all the patients were found to have contracted the virus locally. Mizoram currently has 5,982 active COVID-19 cases, while 46,290 people have recovered from the infection, including 872 people on Sunday. The COVID-19 recovery rate in the state now is 88.21 per cent and the death rate is 0.38 per cent. The state has tested more than 7.91 lakh samples for COVID-19 till date. Over 6.50 lakh people have been vaccinated in the state so far, according to state immunisation officer Dr Lalzawmi.

As the threat of a possible third wave of coronavirus looms large, a committee set up by the Union Home Ministry has said a third wave of the coronavirus (Covid-19) disease may reach its peak around October, news agency ANI tweeted. “National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), has warned of a third #COVID19 wave peak in October in its recent report to Prime Minister’s Office (PMO),” read the tweet.

In its report that has been submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), the committee has spoken about the critical need for paediatric facilities, including doctors, staff, and equipment like ventilators and ambulances, if a large number of children got infected by the virus, Hindustan Times reported. The NIDM’s report quoted the Reuters’ opinion survey of 40 experts that forecasted that the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to hit India between July 15 and October 13, 2021.

On whether the Delta-Plus Variant will be the driver of the third wave, NIDM said the Delta-Plus variant formed due to the mutation in the B.1.617.2 (Delta variant) that drove the fatal second surge in India. This new variant of concern is a sub-lineage of the Delta variant that has acquired a spike protein mutation ‘K417N’ which is also found in the Beta variant (first detected in South Africa). Moneycontrol