Experts say COVID spike can’t be ruled out in Maharashtra

Mumbai reported more than 624 fresh Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, crossing the 600-mark which was seen 84 days ago on July 14 when 619 infections were registered in the city . This comes a day after the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) said a spike in cases could not be ruled out completely due to upcoming festivals and seasonal migration. Mumbai also reported seven deaths, taking the city’s Covid related death toll to 16,136 out of the total 746,703 infections it has registered so far. The city’s recovery rate is at a healthy 96% and the fatality rate is 2.16%. The city has 5,451 active cases and it reported 1.50% positivity rate on Wednesday.

On Monday, BMC was reported to have told the Bombay high court that the vaccination drive was progressing smoothly with there being no shortage of vaccines now and the municipality didn’t see a third wave of the disease coming. However, it added that a spike in cases cannot be ruled out.

”The situation in the city is very comfortable right now and it is maybe safe considering we are able to handle the caseload very well and there is adequate health infrastructure to handle cases. However, we cannot completely rule out any further spike. There are festivals including Navratri, Dussehra and Diwali coming, where there will be gatherings,” Suresh Kakani, BMC’s additional municipal commissioner told HT on Tuesday.

“We cannot make any claim that a third wave will not come. In Ahmednagar district, several villages are facing a spike and we cannot claim anything on the above lines. We have to remain cautious and continue following Covid-19 appropriate behaviour, and get vaccinated, considering it is definitely helping in controlling the spread,” Kakani added, clearly articulating that BMC was not in a position to rule out a third wave of Covid infections.

Experts on the other hand had indicated that while there was likely to be a spike in cases due to extensive unlocking, a third wave in the metropolis was unlikely now.

Moreover, the number of cases in Maharashtra are on a declining trend currently with weekly positivity rate dropping to 2.07% from last week’s 2.11%. There is no district with positivity rate greater than 5%, indicating that the Covid-19 spread is under control.

The positivity rate is a crucial metric that shows how widespread the virus is in the community. It is the proportion of the total tests that turn positive in that region. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that this should remain below 5% for an outbreak to be considered under control. Maharashtra currently has 11 districts, which have positivity rates above the state average of 2.07% but under the 5% threshold.

Maharashtra on Wednesday recorded 2,876 Covid-19 new Covid cases and 90 deaths, taking the state tally to 6,567,791 infections so far. There were 150,584 tests done on Wednesday. Hindustan Times