India’s excess deaths could be highest among nations

The Hindu has estimated that “excess deaths” registered during the pandemic period, based on the Civil Registration System (CRS) data from eight States, was 8.22 times the recorded COVID-19 death toll, a figure that will rank the highest among nations with the most recorded fatalities due to the virus. Not all excess deaths are related to COVID-19, but a bulk of them would be during the pandemic. While only close to 20.7% of those dead in the country were medically certified, registration of deaths in India has improved to more than 90% according to the CRS’ 2019 annual report on “Vital Statistics”. A preliminary comparison of excess deaths measured in India and other countries is attempted here.

State-wise undercounting
The table lists the major States for which excess deaths and the undercount factor were calculated for the period from April 2020 to May 2021. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the registered deaths in the pandemic period and the average number of deaths registered in 2018 and 2019 for the same months.

Country-wise undercounting
The table lists the excess deaths and the undercount factor for the five countries with the highest recorded COVID-19 death toll apart from India. Chile was also included because it has a relatively high case fatality rate. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the registered deaths in the period from March 2020 and May 2021 and the average number of deaths registered in 2018 and 2019 for the same months. The Hindu